One of the most interesting things that needs to be addressed is the crop conditions reports. Despite getting weekly good/excellent ratings consistently below last year in corn, the USDA is currently forecasting a new record yield.
Why? I don’t think this is a question with a simple answer. It could be that poor is better than it used to be. It could mean that fair is actually the new good rating. It could just means farmers have a bias to report low. Or it could mean that the advances in technology, husbandry, and the seed all produce better crops than we can accurately predict.
For now the market still eagerly awaits these reports every week during the growing season and price action the next day is dependent on the news. We’ll see if that continues, or gets heavily discounted.