For as much as it’s talked about, especially in the current market environment, volatility is misunderstood by many people. That’s not surprising, it’s a very difficult concept, and something traders spend their whole lives struggling with. It’s the only variable Read more…
There are a lot of reasons why the market might react differently than expected when a major piece of information has come out. However, it seems like this has been happening with greater frequency in the grain markets over the Read more…
We emphasize changes in skew a lot in our reports and many of you may be wondering why? As option traders, we have long seen skew as a leading (or supplementary) indicator of price movement. What do we mean? We Read more…
Debates over the yields are raging right now, but does it really matter? Of course it will matter when it all gets sorted out, but it may not help as much as you’d expect in the short term. The markets Read more…
If you’re looking to the news to forecast prices, you’re a day late. The real news of tomorrow is found by looking at what the futures market is giving you.
Lately we’ve had some choppy trade in the Ag markets. Fundamentals seem to point lower, technicals seem to point higher, demand is sometimes robust and other times questionable, supply is ample, but the trade war looms over all. The market Read more…
Over the past 3 weeks the Corn market has been a little bit volatile. This isn’t the rip your face of double limit up volatility of years past, but volatility in the new sense, the new normal…for now. We’ve seen Read more…
There seems to be tons of information out already about the large crop. Could we be surprised with this number? We doubt it, yet front month vol is quite high given all the knowns that are already out there. Oct Read more…
The last trading day in Aug is upon on and we are seeing soybeans bounce after coming within 2 cents of the mid-July double bottom. This could be the beginning of a turnaround, or just some month-end profit taking after a 70¢ Read more…
Finishing up the growing season and heading into harvest, the path of least resistance looks to be to the downside for Corn, Beans and Wheat. Corn looks to want to test its recent low in Dec of 366 from Aug Read more…