The USDA on Thursday reported an average corn yield of 175.4 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bpa from last month and up .8 bpa from last year’s previous record yield. This left a lot of traders and farmers confused as the reports from the field all year was suboptimal weather with possible major weather related problems, both drought and flood in parts of Iowa. Nevertheless, the USDA is reporting yield out of Iowa at 197 bpa, up 6 bpa from last month, but down 6 bpa from last year. This all leads to the question, what went right? Late spring and early summer had most analysts in the 167 bpa range with a few of the most bullish sub 165 and some near 160. Dead wrong. Could be a combination of timely good weather, moderate temps, improvements in seed quality and simply better farming techinques. Most likely a little of everything played a role. The surprise record yield will certainly make the next few growing seasons interesting.
If you're looking to the news to forecast prices, you're a day late. The real news of tomorrow is found by looking at what the futures market is giving you.