December saw an across the board price rally. A lot of factors came into play this month and the rally felt overdone many times, but nevertheless, it continued. There were arguments to be made on the fundamental and technical side that support the rally, but the macro picture is certainly Read more…
There are a lot of reasons why the market might react differently than expected when a major piece of information has come out. However, it seems like this has been happening with greater frequency in the grain markets over the past few years. While there might be a few reasons Read more…
Debates over the yields are raging right now, but does it really matter? Of course it will matter when it all gets sorted out, but it may not help as much as you’d expect in the short term. The markets always revert back to their fundamental value, but we all Read more…
Over the past 3 weeks the Corn market has been a little bit volatile. This isn’t the rip your face of double limit up volatility of years past, but volatility in the new sense, the new normal…for now. We’ve seen 2 USDA reports try to push this market lower, only Read more…
There seems to be tons of information out already about the large crop. Could we be surprised with this number? We doubt it, yet front month vol is quite high given all the knowns that are already out there. Oct at the money Soybeans trading 21%, 840 straddle trading 24 Read more…
It’s more appropriate to call the USDA report non-bullish than bearish. Everyone knew the crop would be huge, that was no real surprise. Still, the market broke aggressively. Where does that leave us? With Beans and Corn holding the overnight lows from Sunday night, and beans finishing positive on the day, Read more…
Last week we saw the Corn market rally 7 3/4¢ and the Soybean market up 10 3/4¢. Not a huge move, but definitely a continuation of the grind higher. Many “analysts” estimated funds buying futures (covering their shorts) every day last week, yet the COT report didn’t reflect that. It Read more…
The COT report is projected to show the first major fund net purchases in Corn and Soybeans since early May. The numbers will be released later this week but will report on positions as of July 24. This tends to make sense as we saw corn rally 14¢ last week and soybeans Read more…
One of the most interesting things that needs to be addressed is the crop conditions reports. Despite getting weekly good/excellent ratings consistently below last year in corn, the USDA is currently forecasting a new record yield. Why? I don’t think this is a question with a simple answer. It could Read more…
The USDA on Thursday reported an average corn yield of 175.4 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bpa from last month and up .8 bpa from last year’s previous record yield. This left a lot of traders and farmers confused as the reports from the field all year was suboptimal weather Read more…